The UK public finances reported a record surplus of £16.7bn in January, twice the amount compared to the previous year and the highest since records began in 1993. The spike in funds can be attributed to rising tax income and reduced spending. Yet, despite this impressive growth, the government has urged caution, warning that these figures may have been boosted by unique factors.
This significant increase in funds is credited to a boost in tax collection, particularly thanks to January’s self-assessed taxes, and decreased spending such as the cessation of household energy bill subsidies. Despite predictions suggesting a potential £10bn to £20bn underspending of initial government projections, experts have advised against expecting significant tax cuts in the upcoming budget. They suggest the surplus should be used as a buffer against future economic uncertainties.
While calls are being made for this surplus to be used for tax cuts, experts advise extreme caution, warning that such actions could possibly lead to a “tax sandwich” – a situation where taxes experience a dramatic increase both before and after a budget announcement.
The UK’s national debt increased last year to levels not seen since the 1960s, sitting at approximately 96.5% of the GDP. Despite the current surplus, the government still aims to reduce this debt over the next five years.
The surplus presents a complex picture given the challenging economic landscape shaped by the Covid pandemic, where retail sales have plunged and public borrowing has risen to £96.6bn since April 2023. Experts argue for cautious fiscal policies to support the economy and caution that the surplus, largely a result of stringent budget cuts, does not necessarily indicate economic prosperity.
